Advanced Placement (AP) English Language and Composition Practice Exam

What does the term post hoc ergo propter hoc refer to?

1. The assumption that correlation implies causation

2. The assumption that all events are predictable

3. The analysis of cause and effect in a narrative

4. The identification of trends over time

The correct answer is: The assumption that correlation implies causation

The term "post hoc ergo propter hoc" translates from Latin to "after this, therefore because of this." It refers specifically to a logical fallacy where one assumes that because one event follows another, the first event must be the cause of the second. This reasoning underlies why the correct answer is the assumption that correlation implies causation. In many argumentation contexts, people can mistakenly conclude that just because two events are correlated—one happening after the other—there is a direct causal relationship between them. This fallacy can lead to incorrect conclusions and decisions because it overlooks other potential factors and fails to establish a genuine cause-and-effect relationship. The other options do not capture the essence of this specific logical fallacy. The second option suggests a broader view of predictability that does not directly relate to causation. The third option focuses on narrative analysis, which may involve various forms of causal reasoning but does not pertain directly to the fallacy itself. The fourth option discusses trend identification—which is more about data analysis over time than about the causal assumptions highlighted by the term. Thus, the chosen correct answer accurately describes the fallacy's critical aspect of mistaking correlation for causation.